November 2005 — Policy/Advocacy
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Accelerating Out of Technologic Adolescence
As education technology toils through its turbulent second stage of growth, it’s important to keep in mind its shimmering future.
by Geoffrey H. Fletcher
FRENCH POLITICAL THINKER Baron de Montesquieu once said, “The success of most things depends upon knowing how long it will take to succeed.” Which is a good lesson for policymakers as education technology continues to emerge and evolve.
Last month, I wrote about the hit education technology was taking in the mainstream press and offered a couple of ideas on what to do about it. I also have been trying to work out why the press has turned against us. The answer may help us not only respond intelligently to negative criticism, but also prevent it from happening in the first place. A partial explanation revolves around expectations.
True believers in technology and education have sometimes raised false expectations or over-promised what technology can bring, and how quickly it can bring it. We all have seen the quotes from “experts” about how first radio, then television, then computers, then the Internet, then all of these technologies together will transform education. And we have all seen the counter quotes from the “techno-skeptics” dismissing technology as a waste of money and a distraction.
Stages of Development
One key consideration missing from all of
this forecasting is timing. In my November
2003 Editorial column (“Focusing on the
Future”), I outlined the key components of a
futures perspective. One of those components
is an extended timeframe. Unless we
are in history class or looking at compound
interest in IRAs, we don’t always look very
far forward or backward, but we should. For
example, a 2 percent increase in air pollution
each year means air pollution will double
in 34 years. The moral: We must pay
attention to the long-term impacts of our
individual and collective actions.
The importance of a long timeframe and its relationship to technology was brought home at this year’s EdNET conference by futurist David Pearce Snyder. He said that throughout history, technology has always undergone three stages of development:
- The first 25 years are infancy, when the technology is economically nonproductive.
- The next 25 years are adolescence, when the technology is economically counterproductive.
- The third 25 years are maturity, when the technology is economically hyper-productive.
Applying this to computer technology, infancy was 1946- 1971, adolescence was 1971-1996, and maturity is 1996- 2021. Productivity in business has grown enormously in this first decade of maturity, partially because of technology and partially because we have changed the culture of a particular segment of business. Changing the culture is paramount. Snyder quoted Anne Mulcahy, CEO of Xerox, who once said: “Productivity is not embedded in software code! Business improvement d'es not come in a box! Technology requires changes in the way humans work, yet companies continue to inject technology without making any of the necessary changes. Why? Because it’s easier to write a check than it is to rethink the way you work.”
