IT Trends | Research
K-12 To See Double-Digit Growth in E-Learning Through 2015
Worldwide, the growth of electronic learning technologies and services is slowing. But the growth in K-12 electronic learning in the United States will continue in the double digits at least through 2015, according to a revised e-learning forecast released this week.
Trends in preK-12
In the United States, preK-12 will dominate all other segments, including healthcare and higher education, in the growth of annual expenditures on e-learning technologies and services. According to a report released by market research firm Ambient Insight ("The Worldwide Market for Self-paced eLearning Products and Services: 2010-2015 Forecast and Analysis"), growth will continue at a compound annual rate of 16.8 percent--despite the elimination of the federal Enhancing Education Through Technology (EETT) program and despite an overall weakening of e-learning growth, particularly in the United States.
Spending on e-learning in preK-12 reached $2.2 billion in 2010, according to Ambient Insight. That will hit $4.9 billion in 2015, or 20.25 percent of the entire market for e-learning products and services in the United States (and 9.82 percent of total worldwide annual expenditures).
Explained Sam Adkins, Ambient Insight's chief research officer: "The rate of growth in the PreK-12 segment is due to the relentless migration to online content formats and also due to the proliferation and success of for-profit online schools. Yet, buying behavior is erratic as schools struggle with budget cuts. The rapid growth of virtual schools, the dramatic increase in online students, the recession, and state budget cuts are acting as iterative catalysts for self-paced e-learning in the preK-12 segment. For example, budget cuts have prompted schools to reduce spending on summer school and classroom-based credit-recovery ... programs and increase spending on self-paced products and services. It is now more cost-efficient to outsource credit-recovery programs to commercial online providers."
Ambient Insight defines self-paced e-learning products as packaged content, custom content development services, learning platform and tool hosting services, authoring software and tools, and installed learning platforms.
Higher education, meanwhile, will also continue to experience growth in e-learning expenditures, albeit at a much slower pace. Higher education is already more heavily invested in e-learning than K-12. Expenditures will grow at a compound annual rate of 6.7 percent in higher education through 2015, when annual expenditures will reach $6.1 billion.
Combined, U.S. preK-12 and higher education will make up 22 percent of worldwide expenditures across all sectors and 45.5 percent of overall U.S. e-learning expenditures by 2015.
Worldwide Outlook: United States Lags Behind All Other Regions
Spending in the United States on self-paced e-learning products and services hit $18.2 billion in 2010, about 57 percent of overall worldwide expenditures. But growth is slowingdomestically even as it accelerates rapidly in markets like India and China.
Through 2015, U.S. expenditures on e-learning will grow at a compound annual rate of just 5.9 percent, reaching $24.2 billion in 2015. The strongest segments for growth in the United States will be preK-12 education (16.8 percent), healthcare (16.3 percent), and associations (14.3 percent), according to information provided by Ambient Insight. Overall growth is being dragged down mainly by flat spending in the huge corporate market. Expenditures there were $6.8 billion in 2010, beating out both higher education and preK-12. But compound annual growth (CAGR) through 2015 will be just 0.9 percent, ending at $7.1 billion in 2015.
"The lingering effects of the global recession are acting as catalysts or as inhibitors in different buying segments depending on the adoption stage in any particular country," the report said. "In the more mature markets like the [United States] and the UK, the slow recovery is still inhibiting expenditures in the corporate segment. In contrast, the recession has been a catalyst for Self-paced eLearning in the academic segments in the [United States] and the UK."
Overall worldwide expenditures, meanwhile, hit $32.1 billion in 2010 and are now being forecast to reach $49.9 billion by 2015, a CAGR of 9.2 percent. (In the previous year's forecast, the five-year CAGR for worldwide e-learning expenditures was 12.8 percent through 2014.)
Adkins said the current forecast could well be revised downward when figures are calculated for the next forecast--due out in 2012--thanks in part to pricing pressures, though "explosive growth" in India and China could be a mitigating factor.
"Yes, on aggregate, the [worldwide] market is slowing, but only by a few percentage points. The global market is being dragged down by mature (slow growth) regions and countries and masks the vibrant growth in specific countries. All product markets mature, and, as adoption widens, prices go down. Growth rates are calculated based on revenues and the total revenues start dropping as suppliers compete on price."
Other e-learning forecast highlights from around the world included:
- Double-digit growth is predicted for all regions except North America and Western Europe, with Asia (28 percent) and Eastern Europe (22 percent) leading;
- India and China will both see growth north of 50 percent (about 57 percent and 52 percent, respectively), followed by Malaysia (about 41 percent), Romania (about 39 percent), and, rounding out the top 5, Poland (about 28 percent);
- The remainder of the top 10--Czech Republic, Brazil, Indonesia, Colombia, and Ukraine--will each have a CAGR in e-learning expenditures between 20 percent and 30 percent, outpacing even the strongest individual segments in the United States;
- Open source platforms are now "common around the planet," particularly Moodle;
- The academic segment will be the largest e-learning buying segment by 2015 worldwide.
Adkins also explained that mobile learning technologies are "cannibalizing" sales of products categorized by Ambient Insight as self-paced e-learning products.( The firm's first mobile learning forecast is expected out in a few weeks.)
A free, 17-page executive overview of the findings from the latest self-paced e-learning forecast can be freely accessed in PDF form. The full report runs $4,825 for an organizational site license (unlimited users, multiple sites). Additional details can be found on Ambient Insight's e-learning research portal.
Executive Producer David Nagel heads up the editorial department for 1105 Media's education publications — which include two daily sites, a variety of newsletters and two monthly digital magazines covering technology in both K-12 and higher education.
A 21-year publishing veteran, Nagel has led or contributed to dozens of technology, art and business publications.
He can be reached at email@example.com. You can also connect with him on LinkedIn at linkedin.com/profile/view?id=10390192 or follow him on Twitter at @THEJournalDave (K-12) or @CampusTechDave (higher education). A selection of David Nagel's articles can be found on this site.