Mobile Computing Trends

Android and iOS Phones Declining in 2023

• By David Nagel
• 03/02/23

Weak demand and a slower-than-expected global market recovery are pushing mobile phones into a decline, with no recovery expected until 2024, according to a new forecast by market research firm IDC.

The previous forecast called for growth in mobile phones of 2.8% this year. However, IDC has revised that forecast to –1.1%, representing 1.19 billion units shipped worldwide.

According to IDC: "Real market recovery is not expected to occur until 2024, when IDC expects 5.9% year-over-year growth followed by low single-digit growth leading to a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6%."

"With increasing costs and ongoing challenges in consumer demand, OEMs are quite cautious about 2023. While there is finally some good news coming out of China with the recent reopening, there is still a lot of uncertainty and lack of trust, which results in a cautious outlook," said Nabila Popal research director with IDC's Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers. "However, we remain convinced the global market will return to growth in 2024 once we are past these short-term challenges as there is a significant pent up refresh cycle in developed markets as well as room for smartphone penetration in emerging markets to fuel stable long-term growth."

Android remains the dominant OS worldwide and will also see more decline this year than Apple's iOS, although, longer-term, it will also see greater growth than iOS. IDC is forecasting shipments of 967.7 million Android phones in 2023, down 1.2% from 2022. The five-year annual compound growth rate for Android is forecast at 2.8%, with shipments of 1.123 billion units in 2027.

Apple's iOS will see 225 million unit shipments in 2023, down 0.5% from 2022. The five-year CAGR for iOS is forecast at 1.8%, with 247.7 million units expected to ship in 2027.

IDC also noted that the average selling price for smartphones will begin to decline this year and continue to decline through 2027. In 2022, the average selling price was $415. That will decline to $376 by 2027.

Further details can be found in IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.